Ultimately, our collaborative process yielded objective comparisons between alternative future scenarios, incorporated diverse visions and values of stakeholders into the island-wide master plan, and informed investments in the sustainable management of coastal ecosystems and infrastructure critical for the livelihoods of island communities. We found that one scenario, featuring intensive development, would pose the greatest risk to habitats and worked together to understand which activities could lead to such a future and what interventions could be taken to help avoid it. We convened over 560 people in 35 meetings and worked with 13 government ministries to create and compare four alternative scenarios consisting of storylines and maps of habitat risk of degradation. We highlight knowledge gains for scenarios in three key areas: (1) inclusion of participatory mapping as both a mechanism for eliciting stakeholder knowledge and aspirations, and as an input for risk assessment (2) participation of a transdisciplinary team to guide the scenario creation process and enable better understanding of the range of stakeholder visions and values and (3) use of cumulative risk assessment as a framework to bring together quantitative and qualitative information and provide objective comparisons between alternatives. We combined qualitative and quantitative approaches to link stakeholder visions of the future of their island with quantitative assessments of the likely impacts of those visions on future conditions. Here, we report on the use of scenarios as an integral part of a two-year sustainable development planning process for Andros Island, The Bahamas. Using alternative future scenarios in development planning supports the integration of diverse perspectives and the joint consideration of the needs of humans and nature. These patterns also appear to be partly driven by variability in the abundance and size composition of Sparisoma viride, which is one of the species primarily targeted by Bahamian fishers, as well as one of the most common parrotfish across reef zones. Interactions between reef zone and size class were significant with the greater frequencies of larger individuals (≥21 cm) driving patterns (positive associations) on forereefs. Changes in the size frequency distribution of parrotfish-particularly reductions in individuals ≥31 cm in size and the complete loss of fish >40 cm across all sites were found. Temporal analysis showed a significant decrease (59%) in parrotfish densities across reef sites and significant changes in mean density over time for three species Scarus iseri, Sparisoma aurofrenatum and Sp. Non-metric multidimensional scaling revealed two distinct parrotfish assemblages around New Providence temporally, differing between 2019 and earlier surveys, and spatially between fore and patch reef zones. During the period of 2011–2019, 483 belt transect surveys were conducted across 26 sites around New Providence to assess the status of parrotfish populations across different reefs. Because herbivory is a critical component of resilient reefs, there is a need to investigate the dynamics of herbivorous fish assemblages over various spatiotemporal scales.
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